Realized, Unrealized or Excess Fertility? Evidence from Comparative Asian Family Surveys in China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey

The mismatch between achieved fertility and desired fertility is well-studied especially for the western developed countries. However, there are limited studies on the issue in Asian countries especially for the countries that levels of fertility have already declined to the replacement level. This study focuses on the relationships between achieved fertility and desired fertility in five countries (China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey) in order to understand the mechanisms behind the mismatch between achieved fertility and desired fertility. The data comes from the Comparative Asian Family Surveys that was conducted during the period of 2010-2016 in all countries. The study examines the issue by creating three sub-groups: (1) Achieved fertility equals to desired fertility (realized fertility) (2) Achieved fertility is lower than desired fertility (unrealized fertility) (3) Achieved fertility is higher than desired fertility (excess fertility). The study looks at the issue with a series of logistic regression models for each of the sub-groups by controlling all possible covariates. The preliminary descriptive results of the study put forward that for both sexes younger age cohorts experience unrealized fertility, as age advances unrealized fertility turns into excess fertility in China, South Korea, Taiwan and Turkey. However, Japan seems to be an exceptional case as all age cohorts appear to have unrealized fertility. When samples limited to ever-married women who already completed their family size, there exists a clear mismatch between achieved fertility and desired fertility in the form of unrealized fertility in Japan (48%), South Korea (50%) and Turkey (58%), on the other hand, we observe a match between achieved fertility and desired fertility in China (47%) and Taiwan (46%). The shares of excess fertility are at the level of 8-9% in Japan and South Korea while it increases to 14% in Turkey, 18% in China and 25% in Taiwan.