Population Ageing, the Problem of Inequality in the World System, and the Global Financial System

Friday, 20 July 2018: 10:45
Oral Presentation
Andrey KOROTAYEV, National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia, russian academy of sciences, Russia
Leonid GRININ, National Recearch University Higher School of Economics, Russian Federation
Concerns about population ageing apply to both developed and many developing countries and it has turned into a global issue. The population ageing is likely to become one of the most important processes determining the future society characteristics. The present paper analyzes some aspects of the population ageing and its important consequences for particular societies and the world. In 2010, there was one pensioner per four working-age adults, whereas in 2025, according to the UN Population Division’s forecasts there will be less than three working-age adults per a pensioner in the developed countries, and there exist even more pessimistic forecasts. Who will fill the pension funds in the future? If we don’t find new social measures, the increase in generational conflicts will face us in every developed society as well as in the form of the conflict between the “old” Global North and the “young” Global South. It can also influence the increase in global inequality. On the other hand, now we can observe the process of Great Convergence when the gap between developed and developing countries is decreasing. If this process, as we forecast, continues in the forthcoming decades, it might influence some integration of capitals of the “old” developed countries and labor force of the “young” developing countries which could ease the problem of provision for the Global North pensioners. In the paper we present one of possible ways of such a combination. We suppose that the financial instruments can help to solve the problem of pension provision in the developed countries. We think that a more purposeful use of pension funds' assets together with an allocation (with necessary guarantees) of the latter into education and upgrading skills of young people in developing countries, perhaps, can partially solve the indicated problem in the developed states.