Creating Causal Chains from Disaster-Related Activities to Disaster Diplomacy
Irrespective, no evidence has been found thus far to suggest that disaster-related activities are a prominent factor in conflict resolution. Instead, disaster-related activities often influence peace processes in the short-term--over weeks and months--provided that a non-disaster-related basis already exists for rapprochement. This pre-existing basis could be secret negotiations between the warring parties or strong trade or cultural links. Over the long-term, namely the timeframe of years, disaster-related influences disappear, succumbing to factors such as a leadership change, typical patterns of political enmity, or belief that an historical grievance should supersede disaster-related bonds.
This time-dependent conclusion suggests that possibilities might exist for active interventions at key nodes to ensure that disaster-related activities do actually create new, long-lasting diplomacy. If this approach might be successful, then it suggests that creating disaster risk could be a useful pathway, especially for permitting disaster diplomacy. Then, moral dilemmas emerge. Active disaster diplomacy efforts might backfire, disaster risk created might not be resolved, or it could lead to a slippery slope of aiming for a disaster in order to create peace.