The (Ir)Rationality of Separatists - the Decision Model for Partially Homogeneous Societies.

Thursday, 19 July 2018: 18:00
Oral Presentation
Mikolaj JASINSKI, Uniwersytet Warszawski, Poland
Marek BOZYKOWSKI, Uniwersytet Warszawski, Poland
The presentation will show the model for explaining and predicting collective decisions made by ideologically differentiated complex societies.
Finding effective and easily understandable tools for these purposes seems today more important than ever. The reason for this is growing significance of local communities bound together with strong cultural and national bonds. These communities can violate the stability of current political and state structures, e.g. Catalonia in the Kingdom of Spain. The regional political differences in the United Kingdom have become visible and escalated in the wake of the Brexit referendum. The United Kingdom is not so united after all. For example most voters in Scotland and almost all voters in Gibraltar voted differently than most voters in UK. Regional separatist groups can be modelled as form of ideological communities. The severe regional political divisions endanger the integrity of the state.
The presented model is based on the oceanic games theory (games with large number of players) created by Lloyd Shapley, and on the concept of the partial homogeneity structure (modelling the structure of ideological communities) introduced by Philip Straffin. The method for recognizing the ideological communities boundaries, including national communities, will be presented. Moreover, the model measures political power of communities within a divided society. It can be helpful to understand the reasons for renaissance of the idea of the nation state.
The presentation will use the results of Brexit referendum in various regions of UK. The outcomes of simulations will be compared with the empirical observations.
The results of the model of oceanic games with various partial homogeneity structures will be the basis for building scenarios of future events. Local communities' attempts against the state might seem irrational at first, but they could be interpreted as rational strategies in a given structure.