Polycrisis, Welfare Reform and the Reconfiguration of Social Contracts In the MENA Region

Across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), economically vulnerable groups have been confronted with a succession of overlapping shocks that together constitute a regional polycrisis. The COVID‑19 pandemic generated prolonged economic disruption, while accelerating climate change has intensified water scarcity and undermined agricultural livelihoods. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine further destabilised food supply chains, driving sharp increases in grain prices and placing additional strain on low‑income households. These converging pressures have heightened social risks and expanded the number of citizens dependent on state support.

In this context, many MENA states have pursued significant welfare reforms since the Arab Spring. Political upheaval and fiscal constraints, particularly in Egypt and Tunisia, have prompted a shift away from universal subsidies towards targeted poverty‑alleviation programmes, most notably cash transfers. Such reforms mark a departure from the long‑standing social contracts through which authoritarian regimes exchanged extensive welfare provision for limited political participation.

This panel examines how diverse MENA states, varying in economic capacity, regime type and political trajectory, are reconfiguring their welfare systems in response to the contemporary polycrisis. It investigates how governments balance fiscal pressures with rising social needs, how targeted programmes reshape patterns of social inclusion and exclusion, and how welfare reforms influence state-society relations and political legitimacy. By bringing together case studies from across the region, the panel aims to illuminate the evolving dynamics of welfare governance and the renegotiation of social contracts during a period of profound uncertainty.