Demographic change and educational reform in times of new public management

Many European countries have seen waves of falling birth rates during the last decades. This trend is most pronounced in post-communist countries but other countries are affected in a similar way. In the context of significant budget constraints for many states and years of discussion about how to realise a New Public Management this new demographic trend creates political pressure for educational downsizing. On the other hand falling birth rates diminish the economically active population in the long run which creates political pressure for investments in human capital in order to sustain high productivity levels. Hence potential savings in education systems resulting from declining age cohorts can also open up chances to expand education services in terms of quality and wider access to tertiary degrees. Which policies are chosen in this demographically new situation?

According to Durkheim growth in population density and volume creates a diversification of occupations. Applying this argument to the situation of demographic decline I suggest that a shrinking size of age cohorts triggers a reduction of institutional diversification in educational systems and a concentration of formerly separated educational tasks in multifunctional organizations. This hypothesis is analysed through case studies of the education system in East Germany, West Germany, and Poland. The sample allows for comparisons with minimal and maximal contrast in terms of demography and institutional context.

Based on quantitative secondary data analysis and expert interviews, the results show that demographic change affects education systems very differently. Both the reduction of institutional diversity among secondary schools in East Germany and the expansion of institutional diversity among secondary schools in Poland are only related to demographic decline by later co-incidence. Contrary to this non-intentional path a current reduction of institutional diversity in West Germany has been triggered by smaller age-cohorts.