Conceptualizing risk in conjoined socio-ecological systems: Causes, consequences and the potential for solution

Drawing on concepts from complex adaptive systems theory, the paper argues that a conjoined socio-ecological system has existed since the emergence of humans -- a species marked both by tool use and language as a mechanism that facilitates large scale coordination of activity.  However, the human impact on the functioning of the ecosystem has not been constant. While the biosphere, as a system, has been governed by 'natural' processes at the micro, meso, macro and global levels since before the arrival of humans, human intervention in and interaction with these processes has expanded through time from the micro/local up to and including the global (e.g., climate change). An analytic schema, involving three kinds of activity (natural, technological, social) operating at four distinct scales (micro, meso, macro, global) is developed to conceptualize the trajectory of human impact on the conjoined socio-ecological system in relation to a variety of planetary boundaries. The analysis is used to argue: 1) that complexity and risk are increasing and that we face a growing number of planetary scale ecological problems, 2)  that technological approaches to these risks, while necessary, are, without associated social innovations, unlikely to ameliorate the problems and 3) that the major impediment to dealing with these emerging risks is social (i.e., the lack of institutional structures designed to  effectively coordinate action at the global level) rather than ecological or technological.  Factors affecting the relative success (e.g., Montreal protocol) and failure (e.g., Kyoto protocol) of such institutional structures will be examined.