Constructing uncertainty. Technological innovation in the semiconductor industry

We study how and why uncertainty is induced in collaborative processes of technological development. An instructive case for this endeavor is the development of future microprocessors in the semiconductor industry.

Based on permanent renewal, the semiconductor industry is well known for its ability to deal with the economic as well as technological uncertainty inherent to innovation. Despite the industry’s high innovation rate, the development of future technologies appeared relatively predictable for a long time. In recent years, however, taken-for-granted assumptions about the very nature of semiconductors and even the industry’s business model seem to be seriously jeopardized. Currently, there is a consensus within the industry that increasing technological and economic challenges will put a stop to the existing technological path in the next one to two decades. In the search for alternatives, the industry strategically constructs uncertainty. This process addresses all central technological and organizational levels. Not only different levels of technological design and manufacturing are tackled, but even the very foundation of every semiconductor – silicon – has lost its taken-for-granted status. Likewise all existing organizational forms of coordination and cooperation (e.g. within consortia and meta organizations) are questioned. The result of this search is a substantial increase in uncertainty within the industry.

Such uncertainty-inducing practices seem to have two main objectives. First, even if some level of abstract consensus as to the limits of the current path exists, the industry is strongly locked in. The discussion of alternative options aims to unlock these structures. Second, the intentional inducement of uncertainty targets the creation of future development options. The inducement of uncertainty is considered a critical first step to creating a new path.

In sum, the strategic construction of uncertainty is considered to be a crucial step in the creation of a new, and once again certain technological path.