Sociocybernetics: Designing Mathematical Models and Its Simulation As a Decision Support System.
SOCIOCYBERNETICS: Designing mathematical models and its simulation as a decision support system
Dr. Héctor Zamorano
Facultad Ciencias Económicas y Estadística
Universidad de Rosario – Argentina
Is it possible to make experiments within Social Sciences? Some would say "NO" because after the first experiment the social system learns and reacts differently. However, if we have a good model, we can experiment simulating the model.
Into the organizations, the managers must take decisions in order to solve a problem, but sometimes they make it worse.
This is because “the rapidly increasing difficulty of action and decision in such a complex and highly dynamic world”. (HORNUNG)
To coop with this difficulty the human brain and their mental models are not enough.
It would be necessary, first of all, to have the ability to see the world as a complex system, where everything is connected to everything.
System Dynamics is a method to enhance approaching to complex systems.
System Dynamics to deal with the complex systems into the organizations requires
- tools to represent the mental models
- formal models and simulation methods to test and design new policies or to test our hypothesis without affecting the real system
- to have a long term view of the consequences of our decisions
Cybernetics provides us a key concept: FEED FORWARD that will let us to work with “government” concept instead of “controlling”.
This requires a circular – causality reasoning instead the linear reasoning.
“The art of system dynamics modeling is discovering and representing the feedback processes, which, along with stock and flow structures, time delays, and nonlinearities, determine the dynamics of a system.” (STERMAN)
This kind of tools let us to create virtual worlds. Virtual Worlds “are formal models, simulations, or “microworlds” in which decision makers can refresh decision-making skills, conduct experiments, and play.” (STERMAN)