Demographic Change and Regional Population Dynamics in Germany - the Impact of Internal Migration on Regional Population Decline

Wednesday, 13 July 2016: 14:15
Location: Elise Richter Saal (Main Building)
Oral Presentation
Frank SWIACZNY, Federal Institute for Population Research, Germany
Regional consequences of demographic change in Germany, the future aging and the shrinking of the population, strongly depend on the development of internal migration. Based on current trends, it cannot be predicted how this will change under conditions of aging and population shrinking. Though they only reach until the 2030s, recent model calculations indicate that competition between places of residence will increase and that regional disparities of population development will further intensify in the future. Based on forward projections of previous trends, these model calculations tend to present the long-term population development in suburban and rural regions -which have in parts strongly benefited from internal migration-, rather too positively.

The model calculation presented in this study is based on the assumption, that for differentiating population growth by internal migration, there have been other patterns in the past than this will be the case for the future, in which the population will decline in total. Based on a concentration of an expected long-term decline of the population in less attractive, structurally weak regions the model calculation shows, that beyond 2030 even such rural and suburban regions will experience a substantial decline of the population which still have, according to current trends, comparatively positive perspectives.

The presentation intends to:

  • analyse recent internal migration trends in the context of demographic change and population shrinking
  • discuss whether re-urbanisation is a likely scenario of future regional population dynamics
  • assess alternative internal migration assumptions for regional population projections
  • present projections of regional population decline up to 2060