Demographic Change and Regional Population Dynamics in Germany -
the Impact of Internal Migration on Regional Population Decline
The model calculation presented in this study is based on the assumption, that for differentiating population growth by internal migration, there have been other patterns in the past than this will be the case for the future, in which the population will decline in total. Based on a concentration of an expected long-term decline of the population in less attractive, structurally weak regions the model calculation shows, that beyond 2030 even such rural and suburban regions will experience a substantial decline of the population which still have, according to current trends, comparatively positive perspectives.
The presentation intends to:
- analyse recent internal migration trends in the context of demographic change and population shrinking
- discuss whether re-urbanisation is a likely scenario of future regional population dynamics
- assess alternative internal migration assumptions for regional population projections
- present projections of regional population decline up to 2060