Civil Society in the Conditions of Political Transformation in Kazakhstan

The years 2022-2024 were marked by changes in power in Kazakhstan. After a long period of rule, the regime of Nursultan Nazarbayev, the first president of Kazakhstan, gave way to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. As Nazarbayev’s successor, Tokayev, despite the authoritarian nature of his predecessor, had a more democratic reputation and was well-known in the international community, given his long diplomatic career.

After being mass protests in January 2022, Kazakhstan's long-standing power duumvirate fell. Tokayev held on to power by promising sweeping political reforms and greater freedoms for civil society. It looked like the truth, because was such as social mood and rising hope to change from authoritarian pattern to the real democracy. It was a great chance for become others.

Subsequent events, including Russia’s aggression in Ukraine, significantly narrowed the potential for democratic transition in Kazakhstan and Central Asia. Most of the countries in the region succumbed to the new authoritarian wave and rolled back reforms. Experts called this period “democracy delayed.”

Meanwhile, an analysis of the Kazakhstani political space has revealed that there is a basis for civil society. However, civic practices have not developed. For a long time, the state dominated and most citizens got used to living under the conditions of state paternalism.

After the public contract of power in exchange for reforms was tacitly accepted, Tokayev's presidency is gradually drifting towards the priority of security. The government is trying to start new reforms through the development of public advising and elections of local authorities. However, the lack of a systemic efforts and weakened personnel potential against the background of the "brain drain" do not allow jumping out of the trap of authoritarianism.

The question is at what cost they will occur and to what extent Tokayev will be able to steer the political transition towards true democracy.