Where Have the Young Offenders Gone? the Fall in the Number of Young Offenders in the Brazilian Juvenile Justice System

Official statistics of the Brazilian juvenile justice system indicate that the expansion trend observed since the 1990s was reverted in the mid-2010s, leading to a 56% decrease between 2015 and 2023. Comparable trends have been observed in the United States, where juvenile incarceration rates declined by 75% from 2000 to 2022, and in the United Kingdom, where the number of 'proven offenses' committed by individuals under seventeen decreased by 65% between 2013 and 2023. It is crucial to underscore that the reduction in juvenile justice metrics in these countries commenced well before the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. This temporal distinction seems different from others, such as Argentina and Chile, where similar trends were observed only in the pandemic’s aftermath. Our research seeks to elucidate specific factors that may contribute to understanding the Brazilian context, with a particular focus on São Paulo, which accounts for approximately 30% of the country’s juvenile justice system. Evidence indicates that the most notable decline in São Paulo occurs at the 'entry point' of the system, specifically reflected in a reduction in the apprehension of young offenders by law enforcement. Consequently, we are undertaking an exploratory study to investigate possible extrajudicial factors influencing this trend. In our presentation, we will examine four primary groups of factors—demographic shifts, the implementation of preventative policies, changes in policing strategies, and social and local dynamics, including the influence of criminal organizations—that contribute to the reduction in youth apprehensions in São Paulo. Furthermore, our analysis incorporates a comparative perspective, situating these findings within a global context to underscore both the parallels and distinctions between Brazil and other nations.