Changing Choices? Primary and Secondary Effects through Times of Educational Contraction

This paper explores how inequality of educational opportunity (IEO) evolves in the context of educational contraction. Using Finnish register data (StatFin), the study examines the transition to secondary school for complete birth cohorts born between 1975 and 1997 through nonlinear probability models and the KHB decomposition. It decomposes the upper secondary school transitions into primary and secondary effects by gender, cohort, and parental socioeconomic status (EGP). The results show increased horizontal stratification and stabilizing overall inequality after an initial decrease for earlier cohorts, driven by a decrease in secondary effects. Notably, the trends differed by gender. Females continued to experience a constant increase in inequality driven by increased primary effects, while males from the V-VII classes experienced a modest decrease in inequality. The findings point towards possible mechanisms at the intersection of class, gender, and IEO. These results challenge traditional assumptions that IEO operates predominantly through secondary effects. The polarization between vocational and general secondary education and the stagnation of secondary effects may be one of the reasons behind educational contraction. The findings highlight the importance of re-examining the mechanisms behind IEO in societies facing educational contraction, suggesting that traditional stratification theories may only partially capture the dynamics at play.