Where Does the Pipe Leak? Educational Contraction and the Role of Educational Transitions in Finland
examine the role of timing of educational transitions and the phenomenon of educational contraction in Finland, a country known for its historically equitable educational opportunities. Cohorts born from the 1980s onwards are achieving lower education levels than previous cohorts and the association between parental and filial education has strenghtened. This trend contrasts with the broader European context and OECD countries, which have generally experienced an increase in tertiary education attainment since the 2000s. We decompose timing and cohort differences in completing transitions for full birth cohorts born between 1960 and 2005. The role of timing is important as it may result in stratified delays in educational completion and lifetime educational attainment. Previous evidence suggests that the observed decline in university degree attainment by age 30 may be partially attributed to the increase in the age at entry to higher education. One possible reason behind this decline is increased selectivity in admission to higher education requiring multiple years of reapplication to enter university. To account for the delay in educational careers, we have expanded the analysis to cover university attainment at the age of 35. The preliminary analysis shows a slight delay in both entering university and graduation. However, if we measure the final educational attainment at age 35 the level of highly educated working-age population has not contracted as drastically as suggested by previous studies. The most interesting finding seems to be that after the educational expansion stalled, academic secondary schools have become increasingly middle-classed resulting in increasingly stratified final educational attainment.