Socioeconomic Inequality in Post-Secondary Transitions: The Causal Impact of Admission Reforms in Germany

This study investigates the effects of admission restrictions on post-secondary educational trajectories, with a specific focus on socioeconomic disparities in Germany. By analyzing how institutional reforms in the admission system have shaped access to higher education, the research addresses a critical gap in understanding the interplay between social class and educational outcomes. Using data from national surveys of high school students (1996–2018), conducted six months before and after graduation, this study tracks students' intended educational pathways versus their actual post-graduation enrollment.

The study employs a Difference-in-Differences design to assess the causal effect of key admission reforms in 1998 and 2004 on transition inequality by comparing pre- and post-reform cohorts of eligible high school graduates, while controlling for other individual and institutional factors. Additionally, logistic regression models are used to examine the mechanisms that lead to divergence in educational pathways, alongside tests of the mediating effects of students' social class, preferences, and attitudes toward higher education. This research builds on theoretical insights from Alon (2009), who conceptualized the "effectively expanding inequality" (EEI) framework, linking increased competition in admissions to widening class disparities. In line with Alon’s findings, this study considers how exclusion and adaptation mechanisms may similarly influence class inequality in Germany, especially in periods of heightened competition for university slots. The findings offer new insights into how admission policies either perpetuate or mitigate class-based inequalities, with implications for policy reforms aimed at enhancing educational equity. This research ultimately sheds light on the long-term consequences of institutional barriers and the critical role of admission systems in shaping the educational and social mobility of students from underrepresented backgrounds.