Networks of Expectations and Visions in the Governance of Hydrogen Technologies in Germany – a Longitudinal, Multi-Level, Multi-Sectoral, and Multi-Technology Perspective.

Counteracting climate change requires solutions that might contribute to far-reaching transformations in different sectors. As many technologies with radical transformative capacity are not yet fully developed, their future transformative potential is discussed in the form of expectations and visions, which are also the basis of negotiations, formulating strategies, and decisions regarding substantial policy support.

The recent surge of global interest in various hydrogen technologies as radical solutions to challenges that electricity, heat, transportation, and industry sectors face has been preceded by numerous earlier phases of industry and policy interest, just as disinterest and little support. Germany is an interesting case, as policy support for hydrogen technologies has been stable for almost two decades, despite changing expectations, in contrast to other countries with more volatile approaches.

Our paper studies how the German governance of the hydrogen field evolved between 2005 and 2023. It focuses on multiple hydrogen and alternative technologies. It asks how the dynamics of expectations relate to sectoral dynamics and policy support and what level of expectations and visions was especially performative in triggering policy support.

Conceptually, the paper builds on Transition Studies and Sociology of Expectations. Methodologically, research questions are addressed by conducting a Sociological Discourse Analysis of the policy-making documents and strategies. The results are presented in the form of semantic networks exhibiting the change of expectations at multiple levels over time.

The aim of the study is to provide insights into the role expectations and visions play in the governance of ST&I. Our study offers insights into how innovation policy can cope with the various technological and sectoral expectations and coordinate multiple sectoral transitions simultaneously. Moreover, the longitudinal perspective on governance provides insights into how policy actors could reflexively deal with the dynamics of expectations and find a balance between adaptive and rigid innovation governance strategies.