From North to South: The Political Dimension of International Retirement Migration in Mexico

International Retirement Migration (IRM) is a global North-to-South phenomenon that impacts receiving and sending societies. Mexico is the principal receiving country in Latin America for U.S. retirees and the first for Canadian tourists (OIM, 2022). This paper offers a Critical Realist Evaluation of the Mexican foreign policy framed in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) signed in 1992 by Canada, Mexico, and the United States and how it has motivated an increase in the number of international residents in Mexico.

This large-scale migration results in the appropriation of local space, profoundly impacting communities. Pawson and Tilley’s realist evaluation approach, using the Context, Mechanism, and Outcome (CMO) model, provided a robust alternative to traditional methodologies, offering a richer, more contextualized analysis of public policies/programs. By examining the dynamic interplay between context, mechanisms, and outcomes, the CMO analysis of NAFTA reveals that its effectiveness as a policy depends heavily on the context in which it was implemented and the mechanisms it activated. Critical Realism’s stratified framework demonstrates that while NAFTA was intended to promote economic growth and regional integration, its impact has varied considerably across different sectors and populations. Notably, a transnational organizational field in the real estate and housing construction industries has emerged, creating unintended negative consequences, particularly for rural communities and small-scale farmers, due to land speculation on an international scale.

The study concludes that Mexican foreign policy and NAFTA have played a pivotal role in increasing the number of foreign residents in the country, underpinned by an international division of labor. This has reshaped the socio-economic landscape of Mexican localities, transforming them into prime destinations for North American retirees.

[Note: The second author thanks the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development (CNPq) for the financial support provided (Grant numbers: 403114/2022-5 and 422153/2021-4).]