AI-Assisted Trend Radar and/or Reading between the Lines? Conflicting Methods to Capture the Future.
On the one hand, there is the radar tool, which attempts to use statistics and AI in textual data (e.g. scientific publications) to identify conceptual connections or “weak signals” based on statistical characteristics that have the potential to point to future trends. On the other hand, there are various qualitative approaches (interviews, future workshops, data analysis, etc.) that seek insights into possible futures “between” the data or in the interplay of specific information and generated findings. This is where methods, knowledge and sensitivity for interpretation and anticipation come together. “Weak signals” are then not due to the statistical behavior of letters, but are rather to be understood as implicit contexts of meaning “behind” the data.
Different forms and practices of scientific anticipation of futures collide: objectifying formal measurement and assessment on the one hand and knowledge- and experience-based interpretation and understanding on the other. The project is attempting to bring together and further develop both approaches. This is being done on the basis of six-monthly studies of various specific empirical subject areas. The article will draw on empirical findings from the third field examined: “The future of plant and mechanical engineering”.