How to Capture the Unknown? Lessons from Systematic Forecasting of Future Labour Market Dynamics

The aim of the Qualification and Occupation Projections (QuBe) is to systematically extrapolate developments in the German labor market and education system to identify medium- and long-term matching problems at the occupational level as early as possible. By maintaining past behaviors and trends in a baseline projection while also modeling alternative scenarios, QuBe offers a systematic approach to provide decision-makers in the labour market and education sector with critical insights into actual and potential future labor market dynamics.

The model includes information on labour demand by 72 economic sectors, 144 occupational groups and 4 skill levels, labour supply by four qualification levels and 144 initial vocational qualifications as well as information on occupational and regional mobility, household consumption and Germany's position in the world market. Since its inception in 2010, with a projection up to 2025, the baseline projection has now been updated for the eighth time (until 2040) and more than 30 alternative scenarios have been calculated. These include, for example, the digitalisation of the world of work, the socio-ecological transformation (climate adaptation, implementation of a hydrogen value chain) and the impact of a change in population growth due to changing migration flows (Syria and Ukraine).

Each update includes a comprehensive assessment of the model system, providing a nuanced understanding of whether current trends are in line with traditional trajectories or diverging towards alternative scenarios. Even though the model systems combines several rich data sources such as national accounts, the German microcensus and employment statistics, the evaluations show that it is not so much the exact forecast but the structural changes that add value for decision-makers. In the presentation I will show what kind of concepts have been useful and robust to inform about the uncertainty of the future, given the long history of the unique model system.