Transformation or Obduracy? Exploring Perceptions, Expectations, and Dilemmas in the Agrifood Sociotechnical Transition of Thessaly

This paper examines the dynamics and politics of agrifood transitions in the region of Thessaly, Greece. Historically, Thessaly has played a central role in shaping national and regional agriculture politics and policies, as it is considered the center of agricultural production and agrarian culture in the country. Under the constrains imposed by the Anthropocene and the pressures of recent critical events, such as severe floods (2021 & 2023) and droughts (2024), exacerbated by climate change, Thessaly has become an arena for competing and combatting visions and societal interpretations of environmental limits and sustainability. Different actors (e.g farmers, policy makers, agronomy experts, consulting agency and NGOs) are actively involved in shaping both national and regional policies and conceptualizations of just sociotechnical futures. Drawing on the sociology of expectations (Harro Van Lente, 2019; Brown et al., 2010; Borup et al., 2006) and transition politics literature (Stirling 2019; Smith et al., 2005), we argue that the dynamics and politics of expectations configure and empower policies and sociotechnical obduracy in the region's agricultural transition. We posit that obduracy is the result of both the fragmented state water governance, that has configured visions of water abundance empower by the prospects of infrastructure technosolutionism and the path-dependence of modes of industrial crop production. The latter has been legitimized and reinforced by contested certifications and subsidies for large-scale organic farming. Methodologically, the paper is based on an extensive series of interviews and focus groups with farmers, cooperative representatives, researchers, agronomists and civil society actors. Discourse analysis is employed to examine policy documents, technical reports, and records of public deliberation events. The analysis focuses on agrifood sociotechnical systems of specific products: cereals, legumes, industrial tomato, table olives and olive oil