Is The Middle Class a Harbinger Of Democracy? Evidence From Southeast Asia

A vast body of literature claims that the middle class is a critical force for democratic transitions, democratic consolidation, and political stability. Yet, recent events in Thailand and in other Southeast Asian newly-industrializing countries (NICs), indicate that the middle class often challenges democratic regimes or supports authoritarian juntas. How should we reconcile these divergent views of the middle class? This article argues that an explanation for the behavior of the middle class in relation to regime-type must begin by looking at the state’s role in addressing the interests of the middle class. Where a state addresses the key concerns of the middle class – rule of law, economic development, and political stability – this class is unlikely to rebel against the state. Institutionalized states are most likely to satisfy middle-class interests, while patrimonial or clientelistic states are particularly vulnerable to middle-class rebellion precisely because they are unable to satisfy middle-class interests and values. A comparison of four Southeast Asian NICs will thus show that middle-class support for democracy is highly contingent on the structural conditions in which they find themselves embedded.