The Political Economy of Religiosity: Development and Inequality Reconsidered

Existing studies present economic development and income inequality as two key determinants of cross-national differences in religiosity, and of changes in religiosity over time. But the case for both explanatory variables remains uncertain. First, some studies claim that religiosity has not been declining over time; if so, rising incomes cannot have had any impact. Second, there is as much reason to think religiosity is a cause as a consequence of development and inequality. Third, the mechanisms linking inequality to religiosity remain unknown. Addressing each of these limitations, this paper tests more robustly whether and potentially how development and income inequality shape religiosity. I find, first, that inequality, though not development, correlates with religiosity over time. Second, using an instrument to rule out reverse-causality, historically rooted differences in both inequality and development have powerfully shaped countries’ current levels of religiosity. Third, deference to authority correlates with both inequality and religiosity, suggesting it is a key mechanism linking the two. In recent decades, then, the increasing inequality experienced by many countries appears to be one reason for the relatively modest decline in religiosity.