How Is Demographic Decline Translated to Bureaucracy? Population Numbers As Calculation Devices of Local Government

Max Weber’s ‘classic’ ideal type of bureaucracy has inspired organizational theory and research as well as normative critiques of public administration. Both strands of the literature seem to agree that public organizations coming close to Weber’s ideal type are ill prepared to adapt to new problems. As a consequence, prescriptive texts recommend the alignment of public and private organizations – often by marketization. The proposed paper presentation will investigate, how local public administrations respond to declining population numbers (in the face of lacking market environments).

Declining population numbers are especially likely to challenge established structures of local government as municipal service provision was established historically during times of growing or at least stable population numbers. Demographically induced changes in demand are regarded as problematic because some of the costs for public service provision will remain largely fixed (e.g. buildings and staff) even if capacities are not used. This diagnosis (from public finance scholars) implies that there are effective organizational devices translating statistically observable demographic changes to changes in demand for public services. The thesis of this paper is that bureaucracy might translate demographic change into relevant administrative problems by its own means. But which are these?

After 1989/90 most countries in the former East Bloc witnessed dropping birth rates and also out-migration. Therefore, the empirical part of the paper draws on 62 expert interviews with decision makers in 21 Municipalities from West Germany, East Germany and Poland (with West Germany providing contrasting cases on the transformation context). From these interviews population numbers emerge as administrative devices for the calculation in-kind of public services approximating changes in local demand.

Interestingly, the empirical material shows that a seemingly antiquated organizational theory proves to be highly relevant for current adaptation processes. Calculation in-kind makes bureaucracy responsive to demographic change without eliminating political discretion.