690.2
Probability and Timing of Having a Second Child in Japan: Does Gender and Characteristics of the First-Born Matter?
Daughter preference has become common among Japanese couples since the mid-1980s (National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 2011). In 2010, 69% of couples preferred a daughter if they were to have only one child. Past research reveals that having a child of the unpreferred gender is associated with a higher probability of a subsequent birth and a shorter birth interval if they choose to have an additional child (e.g. Larsen et al., 1998). Therefore, given widespread daughter preference, I investigate whether Japanese parents with a first-born son tend to not only have a second child but also have one sooner.
Previous research shows that having a first child with socioemotional and behavioral traits that make parenting easier is associated with a second birth (e.g. Jokela, 2010). It is commonly known that young male children are more difficult to raise than females because they are more prone to illness and injuries. Also, boys are considered more physically active and require parental attention. Then, parents with a first-born son may rather hesitate to transition to a second birth or postpone having another child.
Using the Longitudinal Survey of Newborns in the 21st Century, a nationally representative survey of children born in 2001 in Japan, I explore the above explanations. I use Cox regression to model the hazard of progression to a second birth among parents of first-born children surveyed. I especially focus on how gender of the first-born child and measures of parenting difficulty (i.e. occurrence of illness/injuries/accidents, perceived parenting burden/anxiety) as well as other characteristics affect parity progression. Interactions between gender and parenting difficulty on parity progression will also be considered.