Capitalizing on Nigeria's Demographic Dividend

Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and the eighth most populous country in the world, and thus whether or not it realizes its potential demographic dividend is critically important.  Nigeria is entering a period of potentially rapid economic growth due to the increase in the working-age population—the so-called demographic dividend.  At first glance, Nigeria’s age structure appears promising, with a large cohort of young people entering adulthood (and, presumably, the labor force) while fertility rates are presumably falling. The dependency ratio suggests that the working age population will support the dependents (children and elderly) of the population, and in fact produce a surplus.  In order to do that, however, working-age adults must be employed. Unemployment has declined since 2003, but most of that decline is due in agricultural work, which may not be highly productive or ecologically sound.  Unemployment rates remain high across nearly every region and every subgroup in the population, but with Nigeria’s resources and oil wealth there is potential to invest in some creative forms of education, training, and job creation to realize the potential demographic dividend.  Moreover, Nigeria’s mortality and health indicators continue to lag far behind other countries as well.  Life expectancy lags severely, due to the HIV/AIDS epidemic as well as other infectious diseases, and suggests a need for investment in public health infrastructure. Without a healthy population of workers, Nigeria cannot attain the demographic dividend.