Zero SUM GAME – Evolution of Violent Deaths in Brazil

Though one can perceive an important drop in mortality rates by external causes in the last years of the 20th century and other for homicide rates in recent years for several states in Brazil, this decrease is counterbalanced by sharp increases in others. In spite (or because) of these contradictory trends, resulting global rates for the country as a whole remained basically stable since 1995 (external causes) or 2004 (homicides). The analysis covers mortality data from slightly over three decades, from 1979 to 2011, further disaggregating the information by sex and regions. Brazil’s 27 states are analytically divided in five homogeneous Great Regions by the Central Statistical Office, IBGE. For the sake of comparison, besides the crude death rate for the population as a whole, similar statistic is computed for the young adult population – those between 15 and 24 years of age, the group more affected by external causes in general and homicides in particular. In order to understand the dynamics of the process, crude rates are broken down by broad groups of death causes (natural, homicide and other external causes). Since the Southeast was the region which presented the sharpest drop, the analysis is replicated for all four states in the region to further enhance the comprehension of the process at a lower level. A seesaw effect is also perceived here with São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro presenting a strong downward trend from 2003 onwards, counterbalanced by Minas Gerais´ and Espírito Santo´s upward trend. Results confirm this exceptionality of the Southeast for external causes: it is the only Region that exhibit same level death rates at the extremes of the interval under study, while for Brazilian males rates increase 41% and the Northeast´s almost threefold. Discrepancies are even larger for young adult males.