Analysing Real Conflict Scenarios Empirically – Experiences from Ghana and Uganda

Armed conflicts are phases or processes of armed escalation within much longer (and often large-scale) social processes, parts of much wider synchronic and diachronic contexts that may be conceived of as “dynamic systems”, “figurations” or “self-organizing” processes – including long-term as well as shorter-term processes. Their analysis is essentially identical to the investigation of socio-cultural structures under specific perspectives, especially regarding the chances of armed collective violence and fluid and multipolar balances of power (between diverse centres of social power and various makers and executors of conflict management or violence management respectively). This paper by a figurational sociologist will discuss the methodology of investigating and forecasting real conflict scenarios empirically with a focus on practical research practice and with regard to the relations and combination between qualitative and quantitative instruments, thick and ‘wide’ description, different models of causation (and the historical-social world) and between disparate concepts of so-called micro- and macrosociology.

The research settings of northern Ghana and northern Uganda, and comparisons between and inside these regions may serve well to illustrate the difficulties and challenges of analysis and forecasting that are interrelated to the complexity and highly dynamic nature of conflict figurations – with regard to quantitatively and qualitatively problematic data bases and contested concepts and methodologies. They may also serve to show the opportunities for sociology and comparative research that are connected with empirical conflict analysis and the study of real conflict scenarios. The paper will argue that in order to exploit these opportunities numerous preconceptions and dichotomies in the social and cultural sciences need to be overcome – e.g. the divide between macro- und micro-sociological concepts, and between sociological, historical, political-science and ethnographic methods of data collection and analysis.