Temporal and Spatial Patterns of Secondary Education Expansion in China, 1980-2010

China has experienced unprecedented educational expansion in secondary education since 1980s while there are substantial spatial disparities across provincial level divisions. This study does not only document the evolution of secondary education enrollment over the last three decades and across 31 provincial level divisions, but also examines how well the key factors of modernization theory--industrialization and economic development are associated with the temporal and spatial patterns of the expansion in lower secondary education and upper secondary education.

Based on pooled cross-sectional and time-series data for 31 provincial level divisions over a 30-year period, results show that the overall secondary education enrollment rate increased dramatically, while the spatial disparities are substantial. Additional analyses find that the expansion of secondary education corresponds closely to the economic development and industrialization. Within provincial divisions, more than 60% temporal variation of lower secondary education is explained by the changes of economic development and industrialization. Across provincial divisions, around 70% variation in upper secondary education is explained by the changes of economic development and industrialization factors.

This study provides greater precision in evidence for modernization theory by explicitly measuring industrialization, economic development, and educational expansion of secondary education. In addition, it differentiates spatial and temporal variations between expansion of lower secondary education and upper secondary education to determine whether and how industrialization and economic development correlates in these two patterns.