Perceptions on Hurricane Information and Protective Action Decisions

Tropical storms and hurricanes have caused extensive casualties and damage in past decades. Population and economic growth in the vulnerable coastal areas have made hurricanes a serious problem and created the potential for a catastrophic loss of life.  The existing research literature lacks a sufficient scientific understanding dynamic protective action decision making during events in which additional information becomes available over time. Emergency managers and residents in the risk areas are most likely to make decisions on their protective actions based on National Hurricane Center’s hurricane forecast advisories.  This study uses the DynaSearch program to conduct a computer-based experiment that the understanding of hurricane strike probabilities and their choices of protective action recommendations during four different hurricane scenarios by having students playing the roles of county emergency managers. This study simulates the approach of a hurricane by providing experiment participants a sequence of hurricane forecast advisories and examining their threat perceptions and implement protective actions over time. The results show that (1) people’s hurricane strike  probability judgments and protective action recommendations escalated as hurricanes approached to their counties; (2) people realized that hurricane could make turns and might not always follow the forecast track; (3) risk assessment variables are correlated with people’s disaster responses; (4) hurricane experience has a significant effect on protective action recommendations; (5) participants failed to evacuate appropriate risk areas in timely manner; and (6) participants had difficulty interpreting strike probabilities. The results suggest that participants were able to utilize the available hurricane information to make reasonable judgments about each city’s relative strike probability. However, their failure to take appropriate actions suggests a need for more comprehensive training on what actions to take in response to the hurricane information displays.