The Effect of the Great Recession on out-Migration Self-Selection of the Foreign-Born

The scientific literature on the permanence of immigrants in host countries has faced the empirical challenge of measurement and characterization. Along this line, research on the impact of self-selection is crucial for a better understanding of international migration and assimilation process in the host countries. In this paper we present a comprehensive empirical analysis on the (re-)emigration of foreigners in Spain. Using panel data from the Spanish Labor Force Survey we explore the relationship between out-migration patterns and the labor market situation. We focus our analysis on the self-selection process of out-migration and its change with the economic downturns. To model out-migration patterns we estimate a detailed event history analysis. Our findings confirm results from previous studies. Preliminary analyses reveal that the likelihood of leaving the host country is strongly determined by family configurations and the labor market situation of household members. Those who are unemployed have a higher probability of outmigrating, especially when other incomes are absent in the household. The findings also show differences with respect to national origin, sex, and education. Moreover we find that the self-selection process is negative, namely, the less successful foreigners (in terms of labor outcomes) have a higher probability of leaving the country. Surprisingly, its intensity is weaker during the Great Recession than during the expansive economic period.