Explaining Differences in Fertility and Marriage Expectations of Adolescents of Native and Immigrant Origin in Spain. the Role of Socioeconomic Status and Ethnicity

This paper aims to examine aspirations and expectations of adolescents in Spain with regard to family formation patterns, using survey data collected in secondary schools in Madrid. We are interested in the variability of these preferences across generations and between children of immigrants and their native peers. We look at fertility and marriage expectations to account for varying cultural backgrounds and for acculturation and/or integration processes. Furthermore, differentiated expectations of fertility and marriage tempo and quantum among children of immigrants and natives might be an indicator for segmented assimilation with regard to their or their parents’ socio-economic status.

For the empirical analysis of this paper we use survey data of some 2,600 adolescent pupils and 1,150 parents. About half of the students and parents are of immigrant origin. Besides aspirations and expectations linked to family formation processes, the survey provides information about parents’ labor situation and their educational levels, variables that are used as a proxy for their socio-economic status. To complement the survey, contextual data will be included, adding information on origin countries’ actual fertility and marriage behaviors and the ethnic composition of the neighborhoods in Madrid where the youths live.

Multilevel models are computed in order to account for variations within schools and between schools and to disentangle the complex causal process that determines adolescents’ aspirations and expectations. First descriptive results indicate that adolescents’ expectations reflect actual cross-country differences in age at first marriage and first birth.

Most theoretical approaches and empirical studies in this field concentrate on the U.S. Focusing on Spain as a relatively new immigration country can give important new insights into another migratory setting, which may be valid also for other (European) immigrant-receiving countries.