The Demographic Transition and Subsequent Transitions: The Case of the United States

The United States has experienced major demographic shifts throughout its history.  Like many other developed countries around the world, the traditional demographic transition associated with declining mortality and declining fertility has spawned subsequent demographic transitions.  These transformations have included the urban transition, the marriage transition, the household transition, the aging transition, and the race/ethnic transition.  Of these transitions, the two most prominent at the beginning of the 21^st century are the latter two—the aging transition and the race/ethnic transition.  In particular, the country is in the process of aging rapidly as the large cohort of baby-boomers start reaching age 65 between 2011 and 2029.  In addition, as the white population begins to decline due to low fertility and major aging, the Latino population due to its youthfulness will dominate the nation’s population growth.  Indeed, population projections suggest that the Latino population will more than double from 50.5 million in 2010 to 111.7 million in 2050 compared to a 5 percent decline in the white population from 196.8 million to 186.3 million during this period.  These major demographic transitions will have major impacts on demographic, social, and economic trends in the coming decades and in many ways is likely to lead to varying experiences between the United States and those of other developed countries.  The implications of these trends in the future of the United States will be discussed.