Predictive Policing: The Case of Burglary

This study is designed to utilize large amounts of data from previous time points in the City of Indio, Ca., to analyze the predictors of burglary rates, commercial and noncommercial, to test the idea that a predictive model of burglary could be developed.  Using predictions as to sub areas in the community that are expected to have the highest burglary rates, based in part on an observed relationship, lagged across time, between truancy and burglary, we develop an intervention model and apply it most heavily ion the predicted high burglary areas.  Evaluation is designed to see if we can reduce these predicted high burglary areas to areas with below city wide means for burglary in the previous year.