A Framework for the Sociology of Future: Logistics Curve and the Axial Ages

Until the later decades of the 20^th century, almost “self-evident” image of the history was that of the ever-accelerating progress. That image of history had the objective basis; statistics of the energy consumption, etc. However, it is also evident that this kind of ever-accelerating growth cannot be maintained forever. Biologists know well of the S-shaped “logistics curve” of every species, with the 3 stages; Ⅰ. of slow foreflow, Ⅱ. of rapid or explosive propagation and Ⅲ. of the stable equilibrium with the environment. Our species in a finite environment on the planet cannot be free from this curve. Statistics of the increase rate of world population shows the sharp watershed around the year of 1970, turning point from acceleration to deceleration. We are already passing the historical point of junction from the stage Ⅱ to Ⅲ. Macroscopic meaning of the world system crisis in 2008 can be understood as the first crush of the infinite globalized-informatized system with the finity of the reality. “Globe” is a paradoxical geometry; infinite and finite. Radical meaning of the “globalization” lies in this paradox. Karl Jaspers talks of the “Axial Age” --simultaneous emergence of major world religions and philosophy: Old basis of Christianity, Buddhism, Confucianism, and Greek philosophers. Sociological background of the “Axial Age” can be understood as the ensemble of the interrelated factors: 1) Emergence of the monetary systems; 2) rise of the cities and liberation from the communities; 3) crisis of lives thrown into the infinity of the world. Monetary system, urbanization, and the infinity of the life world are the very essences of modernity. For that reason, the Axial Age has been the basis of life and world until the final phase of modernity. Modernity can be seen as the stageⅡ. Axial Age was the critical point fromⅠtoⅡ.