Sources and Causes of the Kondratieff Wave

It is a mistake to consider the Kondratieff Wave a socioeconomic cycle instead of a natural cycle with profound socioeconomic implications. The principal cause of the cycle is found in a long term energy balance tradeoff between the Earth’s lands and oceans. The cause of this energy imbalance is the differential rate of evaporation of water over land and ocean. This imbalance tends to leave the land warming three times as fast as the ocean. Extensive evidence for this planetary system is found throughout the Earth system. The author has sought to find three or more proofs of each major feature of this system in an effort to triangulate each major feature. Alternative theories have been tried and found wanting in some cases, but the basics are clear except that further work on details is definitely needed. Known socioeconomic dynamics tend to reinforce and smooth out the natural forcing of the system. Human choices seem to be guided by natural forces in the case of the political cycle, but otherwise the natural cycle tends to drive the economic cycle and both tend to drive the political and war cycle. Imbalances buildup and eventually release throughout the combined cycles, with human factors often exacerbating situations along the way. Over a long period of studying and following the news, it turns out many extraordinary situations have historical similar precedents with most cycles about 54 years with repetitions sometimes on the double cycle or half cycle length, often tied to the underlying natural cycle. The author has accumulated about 60 major events that tend to show accuracy higher for longer term comparisons over shorter term events. Peak to peak is the best way to compare an event with historical precedents. Starting year is the best way to measure a war.