Shortages of Qualifications in Germany Despite Increased Migration– What Is Good for One, Is Harm for the Other

Friday, 20 July 2018: 17:45
Oral Presentation
Robert HELMRICH, Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB), Germany
Michael TIEMANN, Federal Institute for Vocational Education and Training (BIBB), Germany
This paper intends to analyse the current effects of migration in the German labour market and their potential social impacts. The immigration to Germany is a result of the European economic crisis and the current Syrian crisis. However without these specific factors approximately 700,000 to 1,000,000 people migrate to Germany and approximately 600,000 to 900,000 people leave Germany each year.

Increased net migration has an effect on labour demand as well as on labour supply. It also increases domestic demand for goods and services and has an effect on the foreign trade.

Despite increased immigration, it will not be possible for Germany to satisfy the relatively constant requirement for skilled workers at the medium qualification level in the long run. On the other hand, highly qualified young workers with vocational training or with an academic degree leave Germany every year. Regarding these circumstances and the division of labour companies need to reorganize their production processes using the remaining qualifications or they have to relocate their production abroad.

The presentation uses the basic projection of the qualifications and occupational field projections (www.qube-projekt.de). This projection pursues an empirically based concept, which shows how the supply of and demand for skills and occupations may develop on a long-term basis until 2030. Therefore, occupational flexibility, qualification and branch developments, and their social impacts are presented.

This analysis will present different migration scenarios, because the reasons for migration are likely to increase worldwide in the coming years. Migration will influence the labour market, the economic and social development in the countries of origin as well as in the countries of destination. And it has an indirect impact on globalisation and transnational trade. The scenarios show to what extent different policies (like the policy on immigration to Germany during the Syrian crisis) influence the economy.