Punctuated Equilibrium As a Mode of Episodic Change Characterizes the Macropattern of WORLD System Urbanization

In 1972 Eldridge and Gould proposed a model of episodic change characterizing the process of speciation. Since that initial publication, significant evidence has accumulated in support of their proposal. It is the position of this paper that a similar pattern, although with very different underlying mechanisms, exists for the process of world system urbanization, and it will be shown that periods of rapid change in the rates of world-system urbanization punctuate periods of stasis. Further, it will be inferred that these periods of punctuation are the result of tipping points being exceeded during the previous periods of stasis. A preliminary math model of this process is presented which shows that the interaction of world system population, carrying capacity, and level of technology are capable of producing such punctuated patterns. These results suggest that this macropattern of urbanization in which stasis alternates with punctuation provide both a context in which to consider other world system processes and reciprocally can be a consequence of those processes. Chief among chief among these are Kondratieff cycles, cycles that have particular pertinence over the last several centuries. These cycles may act as potential ratchets in which the world-system is pushed toward some threshold, i.e. the aforementioned tipping points, that, when crossed, will result in a rapid improvement in the access to energy resources. This improved access to energy resources will among other things result in increased world-system urbanization.