Declining university participation in demographically shrinking regions?

Tertiary education systems are regarded as crucial factors influencing the inequality patterns of individuals and regions in the so called ‘knowledge society‘. Several waves of falling birth rates have produced series of smaller age cohorts in many European countries and other parts of the world. As these age groups mature the question arises how tertiary education capacities geared towards certain cohort sizes are being changed or maintained in order to respond to the new demographic situation.

Political decisions on tertiary education infrastructure influence participation opportunities because most of the students subscribe to regional institutions for graduation. On the one hand side smaller age groups could imply fewer students and hence facilitate educational savings for the welfare state. On the other hand side the demographically shrinking workforce calls for further investments in education infrastructure in order to maintain comparative advantages in the global competition for the allocation of locations.

The analysis applies a mixed methods case study design (statistical secondary data analysis, expert interviews) on an exemplary region of East Germany (Saxony-Anhalt). Post-communist regions are especially interesting in this regard because of the pronounced fertility decline after the breakdown of the Soviet Union. 

Results show that the analysed regional tertiary education system was able to decouple itself from the demographic decline. This decoupling can be attributed mainly to three factors: Rising participation rates are due to a catch up effect in educational expansion after reunification. At the same time savings were realised through lower administration intensity in organisations of higher education. Thirdly a federal policy was set up mobilising eligible tertiary students across the country in order to fill vacant university places. Reflecting upon these results there seem to be also limits to educational expansion decoupling education systems from negative demographic trends.