Iran and Challenges of Aging Population - Complicated Problem of Childbearing and Population Golden Opportunity Window

Monday, 11 July 2016: 09:30
Location: Elise Richter Saal (Main Building)
Oral Presentation
Mohammad Reza ALIPOUR, University of Minho, Portugal
Population aging in the developing countries is moving faster. Because on the one hand, fertility rate in these countries is decreasing and on the other hand life expectancy is increasing. Meanwhile, Iran has a special international position. We may refer to the special report of Population Reference Bureau (PRB) in 2011 in which Iran was declared as the fastest country in changing demographic structure in 2050 by (-30) before Tunisia (-18) and Lebanon (-15) in terms of decline of young population in Middle East and North Africa (MENA). In addition, this issue has taken on more complex dimensions after national census of 2011. Sharp decline in fertility rates in the last decade and incorrect demographic predictions have created new concerns among policymakers. In this article, while using the most important international tables and diagrams showing this situation, tries to analyze the demographic changes process of Iran by studying the most important available demographic data. For this purpose, we are using the Agent- Based Computational Demography (ABCD) framework to integrating the micro and macro analytical levels. The results show that, with regard to the cultural and social conditions of Iranian society on the one side, encouraging policies of probable increase of marriage shall be followed instead of focusing on the number of children in families. On the other side, the reply to increasing growth of old population in our country requires balance of needs of this group with other groups and also design of protective programs for them. It seems that population golden opportunity window provides the possibility of appropriate investment for the next few decades.