Communicating Uncertainty: The Bradyseism Crisis in “Campi Flegrei” and the Interaction between Citizens and Institutions
Bradyseism crises follow a more or less regular cycle, occurring roughly every twenty years, and the current one, which began in 2015, is the first of the “digital era.” The narration of events, the opportunities for information about potential consequences, and the dialogue between citizens and seismologists have recently taken on forms of knowledge production and sharing never experienced before. This scenario offers social researchers intriguing paths for exploring the customs of science communication and the forms of public communication on seismic risk (both in terms of logistical and administrative prevention, as well as evacuation strategies).
This work explores the roles and relational dynamics between the actors involved in risk management and communication within the described context, focusing on the related processes of relationship-building. The empirical part of the study is divided into two distinct phases of analysis that investigate the connection between actors during the most significant seismic events of recent months: a documentary analysis of the official communications released online by the National Institute of Volcanology (INGV) and the local unit of the National Civil Protection; and a content analysis of the narrative constructed by the local population through thematic groups on social media and dedicated instant messaging channels. The results of these two phases aim to understand the misalignment between the local population's risk perception and the challenges faced by institutional actors in effectively conveying alerts.