From Perceived Threats to Active Defense: How the Russo-Ukrainian Conflict Shapes Civil Defense Engagement in Estonia

The geopolitical situation of the 2020s and the threat of a broader military conflict involving the West have increased the need to rethink society's willingness and capability for defense. One way to measure the society's and individual willingness to contribute to national defense tasks is by using the concept of will to defend and, more precisely, by examining those whose contribution to national defense is most significant - who have voluntarily joined the Defence League.

From 2018 to 2022, the number of members of the Estonian Defense League was on a downward trend. In 2018, the Defense League had 26,069 members, which decreased to 25,355 by 2021; the aftermath of the war that started on February 24, 2022, in Ukraine, increased the number of volunteers by 1,428 within a month[1]. In the last two years, i.e., after Russia attacked Ukraine, more than four thousand people have joined the Estonian Defense League, reaching 30,175 as of the end of May 2024[2]. Also, the public opinion surveys conducted annually by the Ministry of Defense show that after the Russian attack on Ukraine, the will to defend the nation increased from 64% by leaps and bounds to 76% in 2022[3] . So, as the population's risk of security threats grew, the will to defend also increased.

This presentation aims to shed light on this phenomenon, discover why people join voluntary-based defense forces (including women's home defense), and understand what values and beliefs form the basis of their will. The research offers better prerequisites for determining national defense capability and improving the ability to develop national defense strategies. The research uses individual interviews and the narrative interview method.